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Formulating Greenhouse Policies in a Sea of Uncertainty

Lester B. Lave

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-2
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Abstract:
To prevent major global climate change all countries must begin to act now. However, there is no agreement on how rapidly greenhouse gases will be emitted over the next century, how rapidly they will accumulate in the atmosphere, what will be the cost of abatement, how large the climate change will be, or even whether the change will be predominantly beneficial or harmful. Beyond agreeing that greenhouse gases are likely to result in atmospheric warming, other factors held constant, there is no consensus on any of these questions.



How Many Kilowatts are in a Negawatt? Verifying Ex Post Estimates of Utility Conservation Impacts at the Regional Level

Paul W. Parfomak and Lester B. Lave

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No4-3
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Abstract:
The current movement toward utility restructuring raises questions about the future of utility conservation programs, which have long suffered from illinformed and conflicting perceptions about their ability to affect customer loads. Controversy has arisen because of the inherent difficulty in measuring conservation impacts and because utilities have had clear economic incentives to overestimate impacts. This study uses econometric techniques to examine the aggregate commercial and industrial conservation impacts reported expost by 39 utilities in the Northeast U.S. and California through 1993. The study finds that 99.4% of the reported conservation impacts are statistically observable in system level sales after accounting for economic and weather effects. The results indicate that utility-run conservation programs have, indeed, been effective in reducing customer loads. The study finds no evidence the utilities have systematically overstated conservation effects.



A Quantitative Analysis of the Relationship Between Congestion and Reliability in Electric Power Networks

Seth Blumsack, Lester B. Lave and Marija Ilic

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No4-4
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Abstract:
Restructuring efforts in the U.S. electric power sector have tried to encourage transmission investment by independent (non-utility) transmission companies, and have promoted various levels of market-based transmission investment. Underlying this shift to �merchant� transmission investment is an assumption that new transmission infrastructure can be classified as providing a congestion-relief benefit or a reliability benefit. In this paper, we demonstrate that this assumption is largely incorrect for meshed interconnections such as electric power networks. We focus on a particular network topology known as the Wheatstone network to show how congestion and reliability can represent tradeoffs. Lines that cause congestion may be justified on reliability grounds. We decompose the congestion and reliability effects of a given network alteration, and demonstrate their dependence through simulations on a 118bus test network. The true relationship between congestion and reliability depends critically on identifying the relevant range of demand for evaluating any network externalities.





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