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The Energy Journal
Volume 8, Number 3

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Uncertainty Analysis of the IEA/ORAU CO2 Emissions Model

J. M. Reilly, J. A. Edmonds, R. H. Gardner, and A. L. Brenkerf

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-1
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Future levels of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are an important determinant of the severity and timing of global warming due to elevated levels of radiatively active (greenhouse) gases in the atmosphere. Many studies have addressed this issue,. These include Rotty (1977), Keeling and Bacastow (1977), Siegenthaler and Oeschger (1978), JASON (1979), Marchetti (1980), IIASA in Haefele (1981), Lovins (1981), Hamm (1982), Nordhaus and Yohe (1983), and Reister and Rotty (1983). Ausubel and Nordhaus (1983) provide a recent critical review of emissions forecasts with a focus on methodological development, citing the advance in methodological sophistication leading to improvements in understanding long-term patterns of energy use and their relationship to CO2 emissions.

Optimum Depletion of Oil Resources in a Developing Country

Ali M. Parhizgari

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-2
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The majority of resource-based developing countries finance a high percentage of their development efforts through extraction and export of nonrenewable natural resources. Though the extraction and export policies of these countries might be subject to noneconomic international causes and effects (i.e., those that do not easily yield to empirical analysis (Mikdashi, 1976)), the need for each country to plan and implement an optimal and consistent policy in this regard is already well established (Meier 1984; Kemp and Long 1984; Neary and Wijnbergen 1986).

Energy for Transport in Developing Countries

Joy Dunkerley and Irving Hoch

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-3
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Transportation is the major market for liquid fuels in many developing countries, accounting on average for one half of total consumption. Unlike the other end-use sectors, possibilities for fuel switching in transport are limited, at least for the time being. Given the existing stock of transport equipment, virtually the entire increase in consumption of transport fuels for the next 15 years or so will involve petroleum products.

The Demand for Insulation-A Study in the Household Demand for Conservation

J. Daniel Khazzoom

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-4
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This paper presents my effort to provide the means of estimating a major ingredient of the demand for conservation-namely, home insulation. A detailed account of the effort and its motivation can be found in Khazzoom (1984, 1986a). The demand relationships of this model provide one block (out of three) in a jointly determined system of demand relationships: demand for electricity, demand for insulation, and demand for efficient appliances. The study is pitched toward the service-area level. I estimated a model of the household demand for insulation in the Sacramento Municipal Utility District's (SMUD's) service area, which has a population of over 760,000.

Technology and Energy Use Before, During, and After OPEC: The U.S. Portland Cement Industry

Charles A. Capone, Jr. and Kenneth G. Elzinga

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-5
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For 12 years analysts have watched industries respond to increased energy prices. In particular, there has been an extensive effort to measure the substitutability of inputs in production, much of which has focused on energy and capital. We may now be at a point where the relevant question is, have firms increased the substitutability of energy with other inputs by what they have done these past 12 years, or will they be caught unawares as the current drop in oil prices precipitates a fall in the market prices of all energy sources? Will we see firm production moving back toward a more energy-intensive process either in the short run or the long run?

Competition in Natural Gas Pipeline Wellhead Supply Purchases

Harry G. Broadman

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-6
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Throughout most of the last three decades, interstate natural gas pipeline companies-operating mainly as private carriers, buying gas supplies in the field and reselling them downstream'-have competed primarily on the basis of nonprice terms. Under the regime of wellhead regulation stemming from Phillips,' in upstream (field) markets binding price ceilings meant thatinterpipeline competition in gas purchases was governed principally by the attractiveness of take-or-pay provisions pipelines offer in their contracts with gas producers.' In downstream (city-gate) markets the chronic excess demand induced by wellhead regulation meant that pipelines competed for gas sales to local distribution companies and direct wholesale consumers (large industrial end-users and electric utilities) largely on the basis of the maximumquantity of gas that could be delivered.

Alternative Technological Indices and Factor Demands in the Electric Power Industry

Randy Nelson

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-7
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The role of technical progress as a means of extending energy resources, together with the widespread use of flexible functional forms, has led to increased interest in the estimation of nonneutral technical change in recent years. Studies by Binswanger (1974), Berndt and Khaled (1979), and Berndt and Wood (1982) at the aggregate level and Wills (1979), Toevs (1980), Moroney and Trapani (1981), and Jorgenson and Fraumeni (1981) at the sectoral level have provided estimates of biased technical change. Stevenson (1980), Gollop and Roberts (1981, 1983), and Nelson (1984, 1986) have also estimated models of nonneutral technical change for the electric power industry.Almost all these studies have two features in common. To begin with, they have employed a time trend to represent the rate at which new technology is introduced.' A recent study by Kopp and Smith (1985), however, indicates that time trends may fail to provide a consistent description of the direction of technical change and calls for the use of technologically explicit indicators of the pace of innovation.

Futures Trading and the European Oil Market

Peter J. W. N. Bird

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-8
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The subject of this paper is the behavior of daily gas oil futures prices on the London-based International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). It reports results consistent with the hypothesis that prices on the IPE follow a random walk.


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