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Oil Price Uncertainty and M&A Activity

Samuel D. Barrows, Magnus Blomkvist, Nebojsa Dimic, and Milos Vulanovic

Year: 2023
Volume: Volume 44
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.4.sbar
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Abstract:
This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity in the oil and gas sector. Analyzing this industry enables us to construct a natural forward-looking measure of oil price uncertainty, namely the implied crude oil volatility. Using a sample of U.S. firms in the oil and gas sector from 1994-2018 containing 4,323 announced transactions, we document that oil price uncertainty is negatively related to future M&A activity. Uncertainty is mainly a driver of horizontal and vertical M&A activity, where upstream firms are more affected by this uncertainty than downstream firms. Our results lend support to a real options explanation of investment under uncertainty where firms choose to defer investments as a response to increased uncertainty.



Oil Price Uncertainty and IPOs

Magnus Blomkvist, Nebojsa Dimic, and Milos Vulanovic

Year: 2023
Volume: Volume 44
Number: Number 6
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.6.mblo
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Abstract:
We examine the impact of oil price uncertainty on IPO volume in the oil and gas sector. By using the implied volatility of oil options, a forward-looking uncertainty measure, we identify the effect of uncertainty on the going-public decision. Oil price uncertainty exhibits a strong negative relation to IPO volume. A one standard deviation decrease in the implied volatility results in a 29% increase in the number of quarterly IPOs. The effect is concentrated among the price-sensitive upstream producers. We further report that uncertainty positively impacts the IPO withdrawal decision and increases the value of postponing the offering.





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