Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name:  Lester C. Hunt 
Author-Name:  Yasushi Ninomiya
Title:  Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan
Classification-JEL: F0
Pages:  63-96
Volume:  Volume24
Issue:  Number 3
Year:  2003
Abstract:  This paper demonstrates the importance of adequately modelling the Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) and seasonality when estimating transportation oil demand for the UK and Japan. The structural time series model is therefore employed to allow for a stochastic underlying trend and stochastic seasonals using quarterly data from the early 1970s, for both UK and Japan. It is found that the stochastic seasonals are preferred to the conventional deterministic dummies and, more importantly, the UEDT is found to be highly non-linear for both countries, with periods where it is both upward and downward sloping.
Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2003v24-03-a03
File-URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=1413
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