Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name:  Sergey Paltsev
Title:  Projecting Energy and Climate for the 21st Century
Classification-JEL: F0
Pages:  43-62
Volume:  Volume 9
Issue:  Number 1
Year:  2020
Abstract:  The growing evidence of severe climate change impacts on human life and the global economy has created the increasing need for an assessment of low-carbon pathways. While the ultimate goal of zero- or near-zero global emissions is clear, the timing and trajectory to achieve low-carbon economic system is not. Projecting energy and climate is getting more challenging because the current energy and emission policies diverge further and further from the stated long-term policy goals. We provide a discussion of descriptive and prescriptive approaches to energy and climate forecasts. While the fundamental uncertainties are unavoidable, a group of scenarios that project the entire range of plausible developments provides better guidance for decision-making than any (or several) individual scenario(s). We offer an example of an integrated approach from the MIT Joint Program Outlook that can be used for a quantitative analysis of decision-making risks associated with different energy pathways. Despite the broad variety of scenarios, the article finds some robust findings for the energy system.
Handle: RePEc:aen:eeepjl:eeep9-1-Paltsev
File-URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/eeeparticle.aspx?id=303
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